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And so it goes down

This is where I say: told you so. I envy the person that will eventually write the history of how Couchsurfing came crashing down, for the story is filled with betrayal, success, horror, sex, drugs and money. No, seriously, “Social Network” is a Disney movie compared to the R-rated chronicles of Couchsurfing.

For those just tuning in, where are we in the scenario? We’ve seen a community founded on lofty ideals, grow, nay burst with activity and numbers, we’ve seen hubris take the form of work-as-permanent-vacation, we’ve seen scandals of every sort imaginable, we’ve seen the falling out of all the idealistic volunteers and – not so long ago – the original founder has gone into hiding. As predicted, the money-flow eventually became insufficient to full-fill the beast that was created. Worse yet, the beast had not been paying taxes because “the IRS didn’t understand the innovative commercial nature of our non-profit” and now must be fed even more:

“I think the best possible structure is the one we have. One of the challenges with nonprofits is it’s difficult to adapt quickly and easily from a business model perspective because you need clearance from the IRS. Now we get that flexibility and we’re still making a statement.” – Dan Hoffer (in Techcrunch)

What is amazing is that they have found VC money (a mere 7,6 million $, which is actually pretty abismal and probably indicative of the low expectancy of success) and have thus kept afloat even now. The CS inner crowd are survivors, you have to respect that at least. And they know how to lie to, judging by this bit:

“Indeed, one of the big reasons they decided to take funding and switch the company’s classification was to make it easier to recruit stock-option seeking engineers.” (same Techcrunch article)

Anyone who knows anything knows the switch in classification was forced unto CS, after years of fruitfully trying to obtain 501(c)3, but I guess it’s important to start rewriting history as soon as possible.

Here’s the problem though. How are they going to earn those VC’s their big bucks? You have to keep in mind that the expectation here is about 5-7 times (!) the investment in about 4-5 years and the clock has started ticking. It is easy to see that the current revenue stream just doesn’t work: verification fees are eventually going to dry up (most likely have hit their peak already). And donating to a for-profit? I just don’t see it happening. This means CS is going to have to find a steady income stream and – I would expect – even have already made indications to the VC’s of where they might get it. Now, I only see two options:

  1. They start making money off the “daily activity”, which would be hosting itself. Dan hints at “premier services”, but I don’t think that is going to fly for a two reasons. a) You can only run a verification scam once. b) It is insanely hard to convert non-paying volunteers into paying customers. c) There are still free alternatives out there, BeWelcoming everyone with open arms. (OK, that’s three reasons.) I honestly doubt they will go this route, but with Todor Tashev on board it might just happen. Todor Tashev is also on the board of Meetup, a company that successfully makes money from their volunteer-run activities.
  2. They go the Facebook route of leveraging the personal data that is embedded in the social network that Couchsurfing is to a large extent. The fact that Matt Cohler (heavy duty ex-Facebook guy) has joined the board as well makes this a very frightening possibility. On a practical level, this would mean letting companies access the enormous amount of personal information, so they can give you those personalized ads you’ve always wanted. The advantage is that this can be introduced in a nice and sneaky way, the disadvantage is that a large majority of couchsurfers are on there precisely because they don’t have cash to burn. I guess you can always try to schlepp airplane tickets or discount backpacks, but that is a rough business (travel is an industries with razor-thin margins, keeping afloat mainly on quantity).
Either way, holy shit, that is going to be difficult. Points to the VC guys for having so much self-confidence.
Here are the blind angles though, the things that are going to kick their asses all over their no doubt fancy San Fransisco offices :
  1. We may assume the code is still an unholy patchwork and they are going to throw some “stock-option seeking engineers” at it. Oh lord, this is going to be spectacular. And by spectacular, I mean a disaster.
  2. They are going to have to transform one of the most self-centered and non-standard organization into a well-oiled money making machine. And by non-standard, I mean bat-shit insane.
Wrestling the Couchsurfing culture to the ground is going to way more difficult than any of these guys can ever imagine. But hey, Digg succeeded in doing that right? No, wait, they got their asses handed to them by Reddit (the 5 years younger open-source alternative).
Here’s what I predict:
  • A spectacular series of technical failures as these stock-option seeking engineers break stuff that wasn’t meant to be touched – ever.
  • An incredible and ugly public fight with their own user-base. All these ambassadors that worked so hard to earn their badge for the wonderful non-profit, someone is bound to get angry, no? Not only that, but imagine the dirt that is lying around (on this site as well as various archives). I mean, seriously, did none of these investors do their homework?
  • Couchsurfing will never ever break-even.

18 Responses to “And so it goes down”


  • I`ve donated money to CS as well as volunteered. Now they sold a stake in it just like any business. Can I get my money back?

    I`m deleting my profile already and so far 4 of my friends have already done so.

  • CouchSurfing 2009 took in $1.16 million in revenue, much of it in fees for verifying people’s identities.
    They should return all the money they took from the time they pursued this vc money.

    http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2011/08/couchsurfing-raises-76m.html?page=all

    The puchline!
    “Co-founder Casey Fenton, who had been executive director, will now focus on user happiness.”

  • “I mean, seriously, did none of these investors do their homework?”

    Read my mind. But then again, CaseyInc. is a master of deceit and manipulation.

    “They go the Facebook route of leveraging the personal data that is embedded in the social network that Couchsurfing is to a large extent.”

    My money’s on this one.

    And bravo, for a very well written post, every part of it!

  • I would like to see these emails that were exchanged:
    http://volunteerwiki.hospitalityclub.org/couchsurfing-for-profit-business-now

    Venture capital firms expect a large return on their investments in return for the risks taken (risk reward ratio) so for $7 million investmet they will expect/hope for a profit of several times that figure. How is Couchsurfing going to generate profits of tens of millions of dollars without compromising it’s values? Not possible imho. As above, the value for investors is in the personal data of CS members.
    http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/24/couchsurfing-raises-7-6-m-will-users-cry-sell-out/

  • The _only_ thing that will “work,” is for C$ to somehow lose a truly significant number of members. It can happen, when an alternative offers a good reason to choose the alternative instead of C$ (see MySpace -> Facebook).

    Most users, the vast majority, really couldn’t care less about any amount of financial shenanigans or deceit, or even the recent move to convert a million hours of volunteer effort into profit for CaseyInc.

    Was just poking around BW today, and there are (still) so many glaring problems… even more than at C$. So many areas left unfinished, and on and on. BW needs to present a truly superior experience, before there’s any hope of capturing users trying to decide which HospEx tool to use.

    And C$ just obtained a big influx of cash to hire full-time talent with.

    Never stop talking about how, as someone said, “a negative comment about Casey is removed in minutes, but repeated reports of a rapist using C$ to find victims are swept under the rug or ignored for months on end.”

    There’s an Achilles heel if there ever was one!

    BW is now the only genuinely non-profit HospEx site left. That is something to never stop crowing about!

    And use existing networks to spread the word – Twitter, FB, your email signature, etc. Set your C$ couch availability to Yes, and then redirect every incoming request to BW.

    C$ is not going to “die” for several years, and if no other site offers anything better, it may never really fade away.

    BW also needs to provide a dead-simple way for users to import their existing profiles from C$ or HC. You have to make it as easy as pie to get started with BW!

    Why do I want CaseyInc. to “fail” so badly? Because he and his inner circle have lied to, exploited, and flat-out used so many people, for so long, and all for their own personal gain, that anything less than failure would still be too good.

    CaseyInc. is practically the antithesis of the real roots of HospEx, that is, trust, sincerity, humility, reciprocity, and gratitude.

  • > CaseyInc. is practically the antithesis of the real roots of HospEx, that is, trust, sincerity, humility, reciprocity, and gratitude.

    yey, ‘the antithesis’ and all the ‘evil’ things CaseyInc. did let to 64,384 real-life introductions (51,254 positive, 106 negative) in the last week (http://www.couchsurfing.org/mission_stats.html). Oh so evil! Oh my gosh! Oh so bad that they used the given chance to meet each other and exchange!

    Chill out dudes, CS is just a tool like BW, HC, Tripping and Servas are. As long as they give people the chance to interact and meet, as long as they support me the tools to do so – they all bring people together and the global village a step closer. Leave CS if you don’t agree with them, be happy in as many other hospex sites as you like: as long as you and the people you are interacting with are happy, everything is fine for the world/peace/humanity/soul/me.

    • “Oh so evil! Oh my gosh! Oh so bad that they used the given chance to meet each other and exchange!”

      I posted generally on your comment below, but reading it again i think it needs a little more attention.

      What your comment above reveals is how ignorant most C$ers are to the reality of the corporation behind the site. Yes people use it and are happy to meet and exchange. This is not because CSI(Couchsurfing International) are such wonderful people living the dream of the spirit of the C$ community. It is because of the people who actually do the hosting and surfing are. Plus the official communication(aka utter bullshit) makes out that CSI(Casey and Co) are trying their best and genuinely want the best for the members. This is meant to be a trust network, so you can’t blame the members for trusting what these lyers say!

      I’m glad that Casey and Dan are communicating via video now. http://www.couchsurfing.org/bcorp Casey comes across as very weak, broken, a little gay and very desperate for this to make even more money for him and Dan, before it blows up in his face and crashes and burns in epic style. It is fairly obvious that they are both lying about their reasons and trying to drag the credit respect for couchsurfing from the community and on to themselves, when all they have done is create a substandard website and stolen millions of dollars and abused many of the most active and valuable members, from the coders, to the ambs, to the translation teams, to the donners.

      Popularity doesn’t make someone or something good. Hitler had a fair few followers, but that didn’t mean he wasn’t evil. Not that i’m drawing a direct comparison, just putting a big hole in your statement.

      “Leave CS if you don’t agree with them” this lame argument has been used often. Famously regularly put as “Luv or leave” by one prominent member. If you don’t agree with something or someone, do you walk away from it? Are you being a hypocrite yourself, for not leaving this site? If i don’t agree with my government, should i just hand in my passport and leave the country? You binary logic fails in so many ways, in the face of reality, that it is laughable.

      “the people you are interacting with are happy, everything is fine for the world/peace/humanity/soul/me.”

      Make your mind up if your are talking for yourself or for us.

      This for me was what got me caught up in all this in the first place. The people in my local community were becoming more vicious, two faced and nasty to each other, than even the negative opinions posted online about C$I. With you logic, i should have walked away from my good friends, who were being attacked and been selfish, to keep myself fine. If i had of done that, i would have been a deeply shallow and selfish person.

      When i tried to find a solution to this local issue, i walked into this much bigger issue in the heart of the community. To expand on my example. When i see good friends, getting stressed out, hurt and in the odd case, depressed to the point of needing medical assistance, because of the gross failings of CSI, I should just leave? Some community that would be!!!

      This attitued results in making the world a worse place, which reveals your true colours. Don’t worry that the top dogs are destroying lives, just be happy and give out free hugs, love and peace and fluffy bunny rabbits and everything will be just fine. Fuck you too buddy.

  • I agree with so much of what is being said on this blog and have been LMFAO. I’m sure i’m pissing of some of my neighbours, properly LOLing at 7am on a sunday morning.

    “Was just poking around BW today, and there are (still) so many glaring problems… even more than at C$.”

    @Kasper and any BV/BW admins etc
    This above comment is very true, which is frustrating. PlanetCruser had a bash at pushing some of these issues a couple of months back, which was encouraging. But it seemed to die off quite quickly. Part of this seems to be because there seems to be no one on the bridge of BW and no one even at reception.

    What is going on at BW? There is work to be done and people that seem interested in doing it. But no one conducting and rather than creating a symphony, the interested people are left to jazz out or simply wander off.

    I tried to register on the forum, but when i try to login, it is still telling me that the account is waiting to be approved.

    I had a look around the bug tracker and many of the bugs are at least 3 years old. If we’re going to talk about BW we should at least get it to a state where it can benefit from renewed interest and discontent with the alternatives.

    @Olaf Dude, how much were you paid to have a lobotomy? Or are you just naturally really fucking stupid? Or do you work for the CaseyInc Ministry of truth?

    Yes, CSI is, virtually EVIL. Really. If you can’t see it, you are either blind or don’t know what you are talking about and should do a little more research on the subject before posting on this site again.

  • Not bashing on anyone with a speech impediment, and I realize it sucks, and can be nearly impossible to resolve… but, I had no idea Casey Fenton speaks with a lisp! And then all the little fey, twitchy head tips for emphasis.

    Good lord… if I hadn’t already heard all the horn-dog orgy stories, I’d bet money he was a “friend of Judy!” (Not that there’s anything wrong with that, seriously…)

    And man, does he spin it! Actually lying repeatedly, as is his nature. The furrowed-brow of seriousness is a nice touch, too. What a deceitful, manipulative pr*ck.

    Then you have smirking Dan in the background, nodding and slow-blinking at every scripted moment. Oh, and he’s got his lingering lisp going on, too.

    I see Casey has his _ever-present_ cool-surfer-boy polished rock necklace underneath the collar of his dry-cleaned dress shirt, too. I have never seen a picture of that poser, without the necklace.

    This pure propaganda is as scripted and staged as a scene from a soap opera. What a total load of horse-sh*t.

  • Casey and company were basically forced to change the status of couchsurfing due to changes in US law reguarding non-profit and corporate law. That about sums it up. It’s not some vast evil conspiracy.

    “A B corporation, or Benefit corporation, is a new class of corporation in the United States, required by law to create general benefit for society as well as for shareholders. Benefit Corporations must create a material positive impact on society; consider how decisions affect employees, community and the environment; and publicly report their social and environmental performance using established third-party standards[1].

    The new law addresses an escalating concern among entrepreneurs who need to raise growth capital but fear losing control of the social or environmental mission of their business.[2] In addition, it provides companies the ability to consider factors other than the highest purchase offer at the time of sale,”

  • Strange move. I also do not agree entirely with statements like “We’re definitely gonna try. Our vision and mission remain the same. Same path, different engine.” (http://twitter.com/#!/CS_Casey/status/106929770616463361) as I think the ‘how’ is as important as the ‘what’.

    However, what I like is that on the new start page of CS the total amount of members is gone and right in front it says now: “In the last week 44,801 CouchSurfers around the world have met in person to experience fun, adventure, and hospitality.”

    Hopefully they do everything to stay free while they try to maximize the amount of people meeting and improve the quality of the experience fun, adventure, and hospitality.

    Best,
    adia

  • Strange move. I also do not agree entirely with statements like “We’re definitely gonna try. Our vision and mission remain the same. Same path, different engine.” (http://twitter.com/#!/CS_Casey/status/106929770616463361) as I think the ‘how’ is as important as the ‘what’.

    However, what I like is that on the new start page of CS the total amount of members is gone and right in front it says now: “In the last week 44,801 CouchSurfers around the world have met in person to experience fun, adventure, and hospitality.”

    Hopefully they do everything to stay free while they try to maximize the amount of people meeting and improve the quality of the experience fun, adventure, and hospitality.

    Best,
    adia

  • Doh, I forgot… and I might take back what I said above. I do not like this individualistic video next to it with the emphasis on the amount of countries, stays and references…

    • les claypool

      I was exactly talking about this kind of so call travelers spirit, I ve met so many which would never have to travel away from their homeland without internet

  • Ciao Dears!
    @ Thomas: thanks a lot for this (as usual!) enlightening, visionary and certainly reliable prediction, even if a sad taste emerges…
    Best Regards
    m.

  • Tambassador

    The Ambassador has to be happy and loyal to the company. Angry Ambassadors fighting against their visionary leader….that`s illogical!

  • les claypool

    I ve just deleted my profile, anyway I didn t like the so call C.S spirit, you crash my sofa and besides I have to behave a particular way, u must be kidding !!!
    When I started traveling, Internet and all that shit didn t exist, so back to the roots, back to more authenticity, meeting real people free from that “virtual spirit”.

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